As a gay man and a longtime political junkie, I have to say that the past 24 hours was a hugely enjoyable experience for me. While the ultimate resolution of yesterday's Supreme Court hearings won't be known for several months, it's clearly a sign of the changing times when U.S. senators are falling over themselves to try and announce their support of gay marriage. A decade ago, a senator from Massachusetts was reluctant to announce his support of gay marriage. This past week, senators from West Virginia, Missouri, Montana, and even Alaska have announced their support of the institution.
In fact, with yesterday's announcements, there are only ten sitting U.S. Senators in the Democratic Party that are not in favor of gay marriage. With only ten, that seems like an obvious time to make a list. So here, I will rank from least to most likely the ten remaining Democrats and the odds they will endorse gay marriage.
Honorable Mention: With Sen. Rob Portman's (R) endorsement of gay marriage, there is always the possibility that the next senator to endorse gay marriage could be a Republican. While blue state Republicans Ron Johnson (WI) and Pat Toomey (PA) are unlikely to support the movement, senators like Susan Collins (ME) and Mark Kirk (IL) are both a strong possibility (Collins in particular, as she will be facing reelection as the only blue state Republican in next year's Senate elections, may want to shore up her moderate credentials by giving her support). There's also Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who was elected as an independent before rejoining the GOP in 2010, who has bucked her party in the past and has cover in the form of her Alaskan colleague Mark Begich, who confirmed his support for gay marriage. Any of these three are probably more likely, actually, than the first couple of Democrats we're about to profile.10. Sen. Joe Manchin (WV): Manchin, perhaps the most conservative senator in the caucus, definitely sticks hard right on social issues, despite his fellow senators' recent switches on the issue. Manchin is one of the few Democrats who still supports DOMA, in fact, so don't expect him to switch any time soon.
9. Sen. Mark Pryor (AR): There's a solid possibility that Pryor won't be in office come January 2015, considering the difficulties facing Democrats in the Natural State. That's actually a much more likely outcome than the conservative Democrat endorsing gay marriage. Pryor is not the liberal that his father was, and I doubt this is going to happen for a long time, if ever.
8. Sen. Tim Johnson (SD): If Sen. Johnson was going to come out for gay marriage, he would have done it yesterday in his retirement announcement. In conservative South Dakota, with his son likely running for public office (perhaps even his own seat) next year, Sen. Johnson is not going to enter the political fray with little to be gained from taking a liberal, unpopular-with-his-constituents position.
7. Sen. Bill Nelson (FL): I put Sen. Nelson so low not because he doesn't make sense on paper to support gay marriage (a three-term senator from a purple state who just won reelection seems like a very obvious candidate), but because he wasn't part of the avalanche of supporters yesterday. Though he could declare soon, his silence on the matter (he did make a public statement indicating that the courts would be ruling on the matter) means he probably won't be announcing anything soon.
5. Sen. Mary Landrieu (LA): I put Sen. Landrieu one seat above Sen. Hagan, only because she has a couple of additional terms under her belt and that may give her more credence to come out in support of gay marriage. Otherwise she's in the same boat as Sen. Hagan-a solid resume on GLBT issues, while not quite at the legalizing gay marriage stage, but I suspect she'll get there come 2015, hopefully as a reelected senator (because, again, we're not going to do better than Sen. Landrieu in Louisiana).
4. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (ND); Another red state senator, a slightly different song. While Sen. Heitkamp did just win reelection, she hasn't established her moderate credentials quite yet on other issues in order to come out publicly for gay marriage (she's been elusive on staking a position, which always leaves an opening for her to come out in support, however). I suspect that she'll be joining the chorus soon enough (particularly if the Supreme Court gives a particularly favorable decleration later this year), but for now, I don't suspect her to come out in favor.
1. Sen. Tom Carper (DE): The oddest person on this list, Sen. Carper is a blue state Democrat with remarkable reelection numbers (he just won with 66% of the vote) and with this exception, has a consistently
6. Sen. Kay Hagan (NC): This is the point where I think we could theoretically see some movement, but not for a couple of years. Sen. Hagan has a fairly strong gay rights record (she came out against the gay marriage ban initiative in 2012 in North Carolina, she supported the repeal of DADT), and I suspect she supports gay marriage privately (in fact, considering the huge amount of senators that supported gay marriage yesterday, I suspect that the entire caucus, with the possible exception of Manchin, Pryor, and possibly Number Two on this list privately support gay marriage), but with a tight reelection coming up in 2014, she won't come out for it until after she wins (in a similar fashion to Sens. Kaine, McCaskill, and Tester in recent days). Gay marriage enthusiasts should not take this as an opening to primary Kay Hagan, however; though it's disappointing the senator doesn't back gay marriage, we're not going to have a stronger ally in that seat than her, and should be working our tails off to make sure she gets re-elected next year.
5. Sen. Mary Landrieu (LA): I put Sen. Landrieu one seat above Sen. Hagan, only because she has a couple of additional terms under her belt and that may give her more credence to come out in support of gay marriage. Otherwise she's in the same boat as Sen. Hagan-a solid resume on GLBT issues, while not quite at the legalizing gay marriage stage, but I suspect she'll get there come 2015, hopefully as a reelected senator (because, again, we're not going to do better than Sen. Landrieu in Louisiana).
4. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (ND); Another red state senator, a slightly different song. While Sen. Heitkamp did just win reelection, she hasn't established her moderate credentials quite yet on other issues in order to come out publicly for gay marriage (she's been elusive on staking a position, which always leaves an opening for her to come out in support, however). I suspect that she'll be joining the chorus soon enough (particularly if the Supreme Court gives a particularly favorable decleration later this year), but for now, I don't suspect her to come out in favor.
3. Sen. Joe Donnelly (IN): The two reasons I put Sen. Donnelly ahead of Sen. Heitkamp is that Sen. Donnelly has a House record and is slightly more established as a member of Congress than Sen. Heitkamp (he was in the House for three terms before winning his Senate seat) and because he promised yesterday an announcement. I would be stunned if he didn't switch his position by the end of his term, but am not sure when during the term he will do it.
2. Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (PA): Unlike a lot of senators on this list, I sometimes wonder if the socially conservative, fiscally liberal Sen. Casey (a rare breed in the Senate) isn't in fact truly against gay marriage. Either way, in a relatively blue state like Pennsylvania, it's foolish to think he won't eventually switch this position, even if he has personal reservations, as this will likely become an issue in Democratic primaries in the future, especially when there are myriad more liberal alternatives.
1. Sen. Tom Carper (DE): The oddest person on this list, Sen. Carper is a blue state Democrat with remarkable reelection numbers (he just won with 66% of the vote) and with this exception, has a consistently strong gay rights record. My hunch is that, despite being a three-term senator, former governor, and former congressman, the very low profile senator may not have been asked for his opinion yet. I suspect this will come soon, possibly within the next month.
And those are my thoughts-what are your guesses? Who will be the next senator to change their mind about gay marriage?
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